Now that we are relaxed about the Covid pandemic, should we grade ourselves on our response? Or do we just want to go “whew!”, wipe our brows and put our noses back to the grindstones?
Well, you’re going to do what you want to do, and I’m going to do what I want to do. Maybe that’s the lesson we have learned from this.
I read a mind-numbing column proudly published in a reputable North Idaho newspaper where the board certified ophthalmologist still argues for Ivermectin. Some docs are going to do what they are going to do. I didn’t learn that during the pandemic. I’ve known that from my first days in medical school. Heath care is not a monolith, just as We the People are not.
And it might just be that trait that I like about people. I respect cowboys. Indeed, I’m a bit of one. I have always bucked the big pharma-driven trends on prescribing medications. But I’m not asking Cowboy Bob for public health advice. And I don’t recommend you look there either.
So, it’s hard to be too critical about Idaho’s response to Covid. Our Covid death rate was near the national average, as was our infection rate and immunization rate. That means about 5000 people died in Idaho from Covid. Keep in mind, Covid started out, when nobody was immunized, before the Omicron variant, with a death rate that killed 1 out of a thousand infected.
So, let’s pat ourselves on the back. Average is good, isn’t it? One thing we have clearly learned is the public is not very good at assessing and responding to risks.
Some of us are. And the data on that is now in. A British Medical Journal study looked at the many counties in the lower 48. (Why do Brits get to grade us Americans?). They compared the Covid death and infection rate to the immunization rates. Counties with high immunization rates reduced their Covid deaths by 81% when compared to counties with low immunization rates. Maybe the immunizations were a good idea. But I’m sure you have your own opinion about that.
One of the reasons to grade our response to a “bad cold” pandemic that killed about a million Americans is because the next one might be a bit rougher.
Have you priced eggs recently? Have you heard of the H5N1 Bird Flu?
Remember that Covid only killed 1/1000? H5N1 rarely infects humans, so far. But when it does, the mortality rate is 56%. That comes to 560 dead of the 1000 infected. That’s 560 times a fatal as Covid.
But we are safe so far from the bird flu, right? It is rapidly transmitted between birds. It is even infecting migratory wild birds now. Penned flocks die like, well, chickens. But they are just birds.
Some animals that prey on or scavenge bird carcasses have become infected. We lost a skunk to it here in Idaho. So, mind your roadkill harvesting.
In the last few months there have been outbreaks in mammals. A mink farm in Spain reported an outbreak. It has not been confirmed but it is suspected the virus spread amongst the animals.
And that’s where the leap occurs. When a virus mutates to infect the upper and lower respiratory tract cells in humans, as Covid did, then we sneeze, we cough, we spread it. And, if the damage the virus does to our bodies stays as virulent as the current H5N1, we will die at a much faster rate than the “bad cold” Covid pandemic.
When you pack the world with as many humans as we have, something is going to get us. And even getting an “A” on your pandemic response report card won’t stop all the deaths. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to do our best.